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Ohm
Member Posts: **260** ✭✭✭

So, I have been spinning A LOT

**Observations:**

Of late I decided tracking spins to see what I was getting back on them. I'll add more as I spin more. After spending more than $600 - I have decided to track what I'm winning/ losing on spins.

1) 250/500/750/1000 credit drops *are observed to be* much rarer than the first 7-10 days (my past 50-75 spins also haven't yielded any of these)

2) Without the four drops above its always going to be difficult to break even

3) You lose a lot of value on trade-ins (33%)

4) I'm addicted

5) I'm spending more money on this than I would like to

Spin 1,Chain (2),Chain (2)

Spin 2,Mirror (2),Familiar (2)

Spin 3,Rope (2),Troggle (30)

Spin 4,Assembly (15),Phylactery (15)

Spin 5,Rope (2),Assembly (15)

Spin 6,Shackles (2),Rope (2)

Spin 7,Mirror (2),Phylactery (15)

Spin 8,75 Credits (75),Vanity_pet (2)

Spin 9,Familiar (2),Chain (2)

Spin 10,Chain (2),Artifact upgrade token (50)

Spin 11,Token (20),Map fragment (20)

Spin 12,Vanity_pet (2),Phylactery (15)

Spin 13,Chain (2) ,75 credits (75)

Spin 14,Assembly (15),Vanity_pet (2)

Spin 15,Phylactery (15),25 credits (25)

Spin 16,25 credits (25),Artifact upgrade token (50)

Spin 17,Rope (2),Vanity_pet (2)

Spin 18,Artifact upgrade token (50),Mirror (2)

Spin 19,Mirror (2),Phylactery (15)

Spin 20,troggle (30),Shackles (2)

Spin 21,Clover (2),Chain (2)

Spin 22,Token (20),Familiar (2)

Spin 23,Vanity_pet (2),25 credits (25)

Spin 24,75 credits (75),Clover (2)

Spin 25,Familiar (2),Shackles (2)

Spin 26,25 credits (25),Shackles (2)

Spin 27,Troggle (30),vanity_pet(2)

Spin 28,Assembly (15),Shackles (2)

Spin 29,Familiar (2),Familiar (2)

Spin 30,Mirror (2),Chain (2)

Column Totals,445,380

Spent,1050,

Gained,835,

Post edited by Ohm on

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## Comments

3,213✭✭✭✭✭260✭✭✭143✭✭✭177✭✭✭3,213✭✭✭✭✭774✭✭✭✭(Ring): Lartus says, "Then it exploded."

(Ring): Zsetsu says, "Everyone's playing checkers, but Theophilus is playing chess."

260✭✭✭349✭✭✭99✭✭✭** And don't try them now just see if they're really broken. **.

** Or credit conversion. Try not to do anything much right now. **.

** Don't panic, normal service will be restored as soon as possible. For now, enjoy the wonders of conversation. **.

*** We will be rebooting in about 60 seconds ***.

** Don't panic. Just...stay close to your rosaries **.

** Monetary offers for Salvation accepted. **.

260✭✭✭303✭✭✭134mod260✭✭✭787✭✭✭✭That's just how the cruel mistress of statistics and gambling works.

260✭✭✭787✭✭✭✭2,648✭✭✭✭✭You need a fairly large number, though. Certainly larger than you think.

Let's say you spin 30 times, since you used that as an example. You get a 1500 credit spin mixed in with 29 rope/rope spins. This gives you an estimated value of roughly 50cr/spin. I'm going to assume ropes have no tradein value here just to make things easier on me, because their 1cr/per wouldn't really change things substantially.

That's a 97% chance of ropes, roughly. Spin 30 times and you have roughly a 40% chance of nothing but ropes. Spin 42 times and you have a 27% chance of getting nothing but ropes. Once you pass 42 spins you will have spent more than 1500cr on spins, and your cr/spins ratio will be negative without multiple wins.

Now increase the chances. You get two 1500 cr prizes in your 30 spins. That's roughly a 94% chance of ropes. Now 30 spins has a 15% chance of nothing but ropes and 42 spins has an all-rope chance of roughly 7%. Just adding 1 more win to your spins has altered your probability assumptions dramatically. Tell somebody they have a roughly 1 in 4 chance of being screwed and fewer people will take the chance than if you tell them they have a roughly 1 in 10 chance of being screwed.

And what if you were actually lucky and the odds are actually 1 in 40? Now you have a 54% chance of all ropes over 30 spins. If you're using the 1 in 30 data set, your odds here are about twice as bad as you think they are.

Small data sets = bad for probability

"On the battlefield I am a god. I love war. The steel, the smell, the corpses. I wish there were more. On the first day I drove the Northmen back alone at the ford. Alone! On the second I carried the bridge! Me! Yesterday I climbed the Heroes! I love war! I… I wish it wasn’t over."3,213✭✭✭✭✭260✭✭✭260✭✭✭3,213✭✭✭✭✭7✭177✭✭✭814✭✭✭